Prepare a one-page memo that summarizes the performance of your stock portfolio from Module 02 until now. The memo should be posted here.
Briefly discuss your strategy at the beginning of the semester and changes that you have made; summarizing the major reasons for buying and selling the stock over this time period.
Also include a summary of the steps you made or should have made to enhance the performance in the challenge.
Compare your performance to S&P and include that information in the memo.
What types of investments or re-balancing strategies did you use OR should you have used during the final weeks of the challenge? (Please see discussion on VIX index below.)
The investment challenge simulation this semester gave us all an opportunity to see the impact of volatility on the market. There is actually an index that measures the level of fear in the market called the VIX index. It is created based on the prices of options on the CBOE. Below is a brief description with some links and a recent article that discusses the historic high level of this “fear” index. With high levels of VIX (normal is around 20 and very high is above 30) the market will be volatile. An active strategy is much more likely to be successful than a passive strategy during high volatility time periods.
What Is the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)?
Created by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) , the Volatility Index, or VIX, is a real-time market index that represents the market’s expectation of 30-day forward-looking volatility . Derived from the price inputs of the S&P 500 index options , it provides a measure of market risk and investors’ sentiments. It is also known by other names like “Fear Gauge” or “Fear Index.” Investors, research analysts and portfolio managers look to VIX values as a way to measure market risk , fear and stress before they take investment decisions.
Here is a recent article by April Joyner for Reuters.
NEW YORK (Reuters) – Investors are betting on stocks to remain volatile well into the year, suggesting that many expect the long-term economic and public health impact of the pandemic caused by the novel coronavirus to continue roiling markets despite a recent rally.
The Cboe Volatility Index, known as Wall Street’s fear gauge, recently traded at 43.36 on Wednesday from a record closing high of 82.69 on Mar. 16.
Prices for near-term VIX futures, which reflect expectations of volatility in coming months, have dropped as well in the past two weeks. Front-month VIX futures, which expire on Apr. 15, were last trading at 42.15 from 45.875 on Mar. 26.
Yet longer-dated VIX futures have risen since late March. VIX futures expiring in September, for instance, have risen to 30.85 on Wednesday from 28.65 on Mar. 26.
Their continued buoyancy reflects expectations that it will likely take months for investors to get a clear picture of the economic impact of the pandemic. Recent U.S. data have only begun to reflect the damage to employment and other areas.
“We don’t know the full economic impact, hence volatility has remained sticky,” said Stacey Gilbert, portfolio manager for derivatives at Glenmede Investment Management.
Some strategists also pointed to the possibility of a second wave of coronavirus infections, which could delay the resumption of normal business activity. Signs of a second wave have already emerged in China, and certain economic indicators, such as coal consumption by power plants and property sales in top cities, have pulled back, economists at Citi wrote on Tuesday.
“There’s a danger of getting lulled into complacency in the summer that we’ll get to ‘normal,’ and then get a repeat of this in the fall,” said Amy Wu Silverman, equity derivatives strategist at RBC Capital Markets.
It has taken VIX futures anywhere from five to 15 months to revert to typical levels after past market shocks, said Gilbert at Glenmede. Given the current slowdown was provoked by health rather than financial concerns, it could take longer for volatility markets to fully process its effects, she said.
If the U.S. economy were to remain partially closed into the fall, it could also influence November’s U.S. presidential election and thereby usher in market turbulence, said Michael Purves, chief executive of Tallbacken Capital Advisors.
“These kind of events mean volatility in the political arena as well, and some of that has enduring impact in the market,” Purves said.