ESSP 200 – Sustainability Science
Assignment #5
Socio-economic Impacts on Environmental Conditions
Due Wednesday, December 8th
In class, we discussed about the IPAT equation used for estimating environmental impact. By conducting this assignment, you will gain experience in using quantitative methods to calculate a projection of atmospheric CO2 levels from which you are asked to compare with other data in order to draw inferences on potential future conditions. You are also asked to analyze graphical data and draw a reasoned conclusion based on the information presented. These objectives fall within the Essential Studies goals of Quantitative Reasoning.
The information below on current world population, the estimated world human affluence represented in the number of cars per person, and the amount of CO2 output per car per year, is to be used calculate and answer the following questions.
Current:
Population: 7.4 billion
Affluence: 0.1 cars/person
Technology: 5.4 tons CO2 per car per year
Calculate if the global population rises to 10 billion by 2050 and Affluence is likely to more than quadruple as China, India, Brazil, and many other middle, low-income countries become wealthier, how much CO2 emission would rise if we hold technology constant? How many more times greater is this increase as compared to the current CO2 emissions? Given that current atmospheric CO2 levels are just over 400 parts per million (ppm) what would this increase mean for the future atmospheric CO2 levels? How does this future level compare with the graph of the geologic record of CO2 levels over the last 800,000 years determined from the Antarctic ice cores (discussed during Lecture 17 – Environmental Quality Part 2)? Finally, what can you infer about potential future temperature changes from these results?
Given the population and affluence level in 2050, calculate if we want to keep CO2 emissions constant, how much technology would have to advance to reduce emission levels?
Discuss the different focuses for developing and developed countries to design environmental policies based on the IPAT equation.
Discuss the hypothetical relationship between economic growth and environmental quality in developing countries and the possible reasons that could explain the Environmental Kuznets Curve.
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