Feel free to add as many columns as needed to do your work. Make sure to show your work (meaning all computations required for forecasting and errors for all weeks and all 4 methods, as well as MAPE for each method).You need to show all the forecasting computations, and all individual error computations for all methods. Important note: The excel sheet computations need to be obtained using formula and NOT entered as values. Any work submitted as pasted values will not count
Instructions:
Using the provided data, compute the following 4 tasks:
1- Compute forecasting for that data using 4 methods:
a- Simple moving average with n= 2
b- Weighted moving average with n=4 and weights of 8, 6, 4, and 2
c- Exponential smoothing with alpha= 0.1 (assuming initial forecast of 52)
d- Exponential Smoothing with alpha=0.8 (assuming initial forecast of 52)
2- For each of the four forecasting methods produced, compute the corresponding error for each week, and then compute the overall MAPE for each method (do this task on third Tab:Data)
3- Which of the four forecasting methods can you say best fit the data? Please provide your rationale for your choice (type your answer on the Exercise Question Tab)
MAKE SURE AGAIN TO SHOW YOUR WORK AND TO HAVE ALL COMPUTATIONS PERFORMED USING FORMULA AND NOT JUST PASTED STATIC NUMBERS
Data | |
Period | Demand (calls) |
Week 1 | 50 |
Week 2 | 35 |
Week 3 | 25 |
Week 4 | 40 |
Week 5 | 45 |
Week 6 | 35 |
Week 7 | 20 |
Week 8 | 30 |
Week 9 | 35 |
Week 10 | 20 |
Week 11 | 15 |
Week 12 | 40 |
Week 13 | 55 |
Week 14 | 35 |
Week 15 | 25 |
Week 16 | 55 |
Week 17 | 55 |
Week 18 | 40 |
Week 19 | 35 |
Week 20 | 60 |
Week 21 | 75 |
Week 22 | 50 |
Week 23 | 40 |
Week 24 | 65 |
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